REPUBLICANS: 1,191 Needed to win. McCain Tops 1,191 DEMOCRATS: 2,025 Needed to win. Obama: 1,032 Clinton: 955 Edwards: 26

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McCain clinches GOP nod, Clinton/Obama race still tight

04-Mar-08

John McCain cemented the GOP nomination on Mini-Tuesday with a clean sweep of Ohio, Vermont, Rhode Island and Texas to put his delegate count well over the 1,191 needed to win. Mike Huckabee conceded the race in a telephone call to McCain this evening and will formally withdraw tomorrow. President Bush will formally endorse McCain on Wednesday at the White House. GOP contenders Alan Keyes and Ron Paul have not formally conceded, with Paul apparently intending to lead his delegates to the convention to address platform issues and Keyes doing his thing for no apparent reason.

Meanwhile Hillary Clinton, who had regained lost ground in polls in the last week and pulled out all the stops with appearances on Saturday Night Live and the Daily Show, a series of blistering campaign ads and a mudslinging campaign enlisting the vast right wing conspiracy as allies, appeared to be winning at least one small contest (Rhode Island) and holding her own in Texas. Neither candidate is anywhere near the magic delegate number and the gap in the delegate count is less than 10% going into Tuesday.

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And then there were 3 - Nader is in

24-Feb-08

Activist Ralph Nader announced his third run for President this afternoon. Nader ran in 2000 as the candidate of the Green Party, a candidacy that is widely credited with torpedoing Al Gore’s election in a very tight race with George W. Bush. In 2004, Nader ran as an independent receiving 0.3% of the popular vote after the Democratic Party used lawsuits to keep him off the ballot in several states.

Nader made the announcement on NBC’s Meet the Press with Tim Russert and simultaneously released this “letter” to supporters on his website:

Over the past few months, we’ve heard a lot of rhetoric about change, hope, courage and experience from Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John McCain.

But what about the facts on the ground?

Take a moment to test your civics knowledge in this election year.

Of the following Presidential candidates – Ralph Nader, Hillary Clinton, Barak Obama and John McCain – which one supports a single payer, Canadian style, free choice, Medicare for all health care system?

Answer: Ralph Nader

Which one supports solar energy and would take nuclear power off the table?

Answer: Ralph Nader

Which one would cut the huge bloated wasteful military budget?

Answer: Ralph Nader

Which one would reverse U.S. Middle East policy in Israel/Palestine, Iraq and Iran?

Answer: Ralph Nader

Which one would launch an aggressive crackdown on corporate crime and corporate welfare?

Answer: Again, only Ralph Nader

Can you guess the others?

What’s off the table for Ralph?

The empty rhetoric.

The empty gesture.

The empty politics.

What’s on the table?

Taking these issues seriously – all the way to action.

Challenging the corporate domination of our democracy.

Organizing young and old alike, 1,000 in every Congressional district in the country, half a million strong, to take back the country from the corporations.

If Clinton, Obama or McCain and their parties had seriously and effectively addressed these and other necessities vital to the American people, there would be no need for Ralph Nader to run for President.

We would be happily out of business.

But we’ve waited so very long – and still – not a blip on the political radar screen on any of these issues.

So in this pivotal election year, ask yourself this fundamental question:

Which side are you on?

The corporate criminals, the big banks, Wall Street, the credit card companies, the nuclear power industry, the war profiteers, the agribusiness giants, the health insurance industry, the polluters, the drug companies, the unionbusters, Big Oil, the corporate Democrats and corporate Republicans?

Or with people fighting back?

If you are with us, we need your help – now.

To get Ralph on the ballot.

To sign up.

To volunteer.

To take a Road Trip for Ralph.

And we need your generous contributions to nourish a people’s campaign to take back the country from the corporations.

Help us spread the word.

Let us know about breaking news and analysis.

Don’t believe the hype.

Keep your eye on the issues and the good of the people.

And join with us to give millions of Americans an independent choice outside the corporate controlled duopoly.

Remember, under federal law, you can give up to $2,300 to our campaign. (And of course, your spouse or partner can give up to $2,300 to our campaign.)

Thank you for your ongoing generosity, activism, and dedication.

Onward

Peter Miguel Camejo
Matt Gonazlez
Jason Kafoury
Sally Soriano
Matthew Zawisky
Nate Coppernoll
Julie Coyle
Carl Mayer
Theresa Amato

P.S. If you are not with us now, please keep an open mind. Things change. Keep checking our web site. We’ll be updating it regularly with breaking news and views, Ralph videos, and news on our ballot access drives.

The O has the Mo and Huckabee coming on strong

11-Feb-08

The race for the major party Presidential nominations is nowhere near over - on either side.

On the Democratic side, Senator Barack Obama is picking up more momentum with each victory and has a small, but clear lead in the base delegate count. Senator Hillary Clinton has a narrow lead if the stated preference of superdelegates, party officials and high level elected Democrats who are automatically delegates and can vote their own personal preference, is taken into account. Many superdelegates are still undeclared and the latest pickups in that race have been for Obama, including the Ted Kennedy endorsement.

On the Republican side, Governor Mike Huckabee is coming on strong with victories in two of three contests Saturday and a legal challenge to the weird things going on in Washington State, where he narrowly lost to Senator John McCain. If Huckabee is really targeting the vice-presidency, a legal challenge to the presumptive nominee makes very little sense. No, Huckabee “majored in miracles” and is doing his best to produce one.

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Super Tuesday Delegate Count Updates

05-Feb-08

I’ll be updating the Running Delegate Counts throughout the evening, with an eye to not posting results until they are fairly certain to agree with the final results. There will be plenty of changing by the minute estimates, exit poll results and speculation on every cable news channel and their websites for those who want that. I’ll be going for posting final results when they are final.

For the Republican “Winner Take All” states, I’ll be making a judgment call as to when the results are are solid. Typically if one candidate has a better than 10% lead, I’ll update the numbers when 90% of precincts are reporting and one or more reliable sources is publishing a delegate count. If something does change after that point, I’ll make the change when all precincts are in.

For the proportional states (some of the GOP states and all the Democrat primaries), I will not update the delegate counts until at least 99% of precincts are in and a final count of all delegates at stake is available from one or more reliable sources.

Later in the week, I will review all counts to date against several independent sources to provide a current count.

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What’s “win” mean in South Carolina?

25-Jan-08

What does “win” mean in South Carolina for the Democrats? In last week’s South Carolina Republican primary, John McCain “won” with 33% of the vote, 9% less than he got when he lost South Carolina in 2000. With the Democratic field narrowed to three contenders after Dennis Kucinich dropped out of the race, 33% would be the figure in a three way tie.

John Edwards is coming back strong as we might have expected if we’d been paying attention to the fact that it’s his home state. It’s conceivable that we could see a result along the lines of 35%/32%/30% for the three active candidates, with a few stray votes for Kucinich and others.

With delegates allocated proportionally to the vote, Clinton, Edwards and Obama could walk away from South Carolina with the same or nearly the same number of convention delegates. That would certainly fit the pattern we’ve seen so far, where the “winner” in Nevada got less delegates than the second place finisher, the third place finisher in Iowa had one more delegate than the second place finisher (John Edwards, by the way) and the first and second place got the same number of delegates in New Hampshire. Clinton has a decisive lead in delegates at this point, but it’s all in the “superdelegates,” party and elected officials who have personally pledged to support her, but are under no legal obligation to do so - especially if convention balloting goes to a second vote.

Heading into Super Tuesday, for any candidate to convincingly claim a win in South Carolina, the win has to be pretty convincing. If not an absolute majority, numbers in the upper 40% range are needed. Edwards, trailing badly in the delegate count, needs to finish first and needs to pick up as many delegates as the other two combined or close to it. Obama needs to best Hillary by something in the 10% to narrow her lead. Far easier to define is what it means to lose - a finish above 50% for Clinton or Obama and a low 20% finish for Edwards would make this truly a two person race.

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